NANAIMO — Exactly where and who voters pick to represent them in Ottawa could change.
The federal electoral boundaries commission has released a host of proposed changes to ridings across B.C., including one new southern Interior riding. Another recommendation involves moving segments of north Nanaimo and Lantzville out of their current riding and moving them north.
Justice Mary Saunders, commission chair, told NanaimoNewsNOW they’re attempting to strike a delicate balance between keeping communities together and weighing votes appropriately.
“If we just left the boundaries as they were, it would have meant people in the Nanaimo riding had less representation than their neighbouring ridings. That the ballots cast in Nanaimo had less power because there were more people, so the more people the less power per vote.”
The commission’s scope is limited to federal representation in Ottawa.
It is separate from the provincial commission which is undertaking a similar survey in relation to seats in the B.C. Legislature and visited Nanaimo in late March.
An animation comparing the current boundaries (black line) with the latest proposal from the Boundaries Commission (purple line). (Redistribution Canada)The proposed changes
The commission is pitching to move the District of Lantzville and homes in Nanaimo north of Hammond Bay Rd. and west of Sealand Rd. out of Nanaimo-Ladysmith and into Courtenay-Alberni.
Also potentially voting in a new riding are residents west of the Nanaimo Parkway in the Brannen Lake neighbourhood.
Major properties included in the move are both Dover Bay secondary and McGirr elementary schools as well as Woodgrove Centre.
Staying in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding would be the shopping complex opposite Woodgrove Centre with Home Depot and Staples, along with the Pleasant Valley and the Wellington neighbourhoods.
Both ridings in question were won by the NDP in the 2021 federal election.
Why make the change?
Population is the major driving force behind the shift, with Nanaimo growing at nearly twice the national average between 2016 and 2021.
“Of all the areas (in B.C.)…Nanaimo grew disproportionately larger,” Saunders said. “We had some areas of the province of exceptionally high growth compared to their neighbouring communities, and the Nanaimo area was one of them.”
The commission’s goal is to have ridings with as close to 116,300 people in them as possible, although a margin of 25 per cent higher or lower is allowed.
Saunders said a division of communities is almost inevitable when they become large enough. She used Vancouver as an example, which is broken up into several ridings in order to properly represent the City.
The province overall is set to receive one additional seat in Ottawa, currently slated for the southern Interior.
Saunders said despite receiving an extra seat during the last commission ten years ago, Vancouver Island likely would have gotten extra representation had Elections Canada allotted a second B.C. addition.
Lisa Marie Barron won the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding in a narrow victory during the 2021 election. (File Photo/NanaimoNewsNOW)Political consequences
The boundary commission is an independent entity under Elections Canada and is not guided by any one political party.
The three-member panel take data from Statistics Canada and other federal agencies in order to compile a draft opinion of the new lines, before public consultation helps make the divisions permanent.
However, the adjustment of boundaries between Nanaimo-Ladysmith and Courtenay-Alberni could have impacts on how riding results play out.
In 2021, Lisa Marie Barron (NDP) won the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding by just 1,281 votes over the Conservative’s Tamara Kronis.
While Elections Canada data doesn’t list voting data by specific polling station to get a gauge of how north Nanaimo voted in 2021, voters in Lantzville skewed noticeably Conservative.
Kronis won 31 per cent of ballots compared to just 24.3 per cent for Barron.
The proposed move would take some more traditionally Conservative-leaning areas of Nanaimo and put them in a riding Gord Johns’ comfortably retained for the NDP last year.
Saunders said their recommendations are based primarily on numbers, with an effort to keep communities of interest together.
“Especially in these changes because we’ve known that we’re suggesting part of one community go into a different riding. We’ve given great attention to fairness between the voters and trying hard to make people’s ballots count more or less the same as people’s in another riding.”
Ripple effects of the move also effect residents in the Comox Valley, with the boundary between Courtenay-Alberni and North Island-Powell River proposed to be marked along the Courtenay River instead of a snaking border through residential neighbourhoods.
The Courtenay-Alberni riding would also see a change, with a snaking border through Comox replaced by the Courtenay River. (Redistribution Canada)The next steps
The commission is setting out on a province-wide tour in June, including a stop in Nanaimo on June 7 at the Coast Bastion Hotel and Courtenay on June 6 to hear public input on their proposal.
Submissions and other feedback can also be submitted online by emailing the commission at BC-CB@redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca.
An interactive mapping and feedback tool is also available, allowing people to draw their own custom boundaries and explain why they are preferred to the commission’s first draft.
“I hope when people comment on it, they will be able to not only tell us what they think might not be working right, but also give us some ideas as to what would be a better idea,” Saunders said.
Hearings will continue through to the end of September before the three member panel meet to form their final recommendations.
A report is due in Ottawa by the end of November.
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